Oklahoma 5th Congressional District · General Election Tracker

Bice vs. Nelson — projected two-way vote share

Each point is a Foundry DST℠ forecast of the six counties of Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District, re-run as new evidence enters the race. General election, November 3, 2026 · reading seven of ten, October 9.

Foundry DST℠ readings, projected two-way vote share
Reading	Bice	Nelson
Sep 2 (First reading)	61.8%	38.2%
Sep 8	59.5%	40.5%
Sep 14	58.8%	41.2%
Sep 21	59.3%	40.8%
Sep 28	59.0%	41.0%
Oct 5	62.4%	37.6%
Oct 9	59.5%	40.5%

Bice — Oct 9

59.5%

▼ from 62.4% on Oct 5

Nelson — Oct 9

40.5%

▲ from 37.6% on Oct 5

Where the race stands

Seven readings since Sep 2.
Bice loses 2.9 points.
Three readings to Nov 3.

Each reading is a Foundry DST℠ forecast: three independent AI models score every county from public data, demographics and current coverage, and a consensus engine reconciles them. System confidence on the latest reading is 81% for Bice and 81% for Nelson, which indicates there is still room for the race to change. Two-way share excludes independent and write-in votes. Two independent candidates also appear on the ballot.

Foundry DST℠ · Saxum
Reading of October 9, 2026

Terms

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